A man who has nothing can’t lose anything, while those who have a lot have lots to lose.
And when you’ve lost everything, you’ve got lots to gain.
Think Vin Diesel in A Man Apart, Keanu Reeves in John Wick en so aan. These ouens are gevaarlik when they’ve got nothing to lose.
Ireland stole something from the All Blacks and unfortunately, I think the Springboks are going to pay for it.
That’s why, ahead of Saturday’s Rugby Championship opener at the Mbombela Stadium, I’d much rather be in the New Zealand camp than that of South Africa.
Written off the world over, the Kiws aren’t expected to beat South Africa. Yet, when these two countries meet, you can never call a winner before kickoff. It always comes down to which team wants it most.
I don’t doubt South Africa’s commitment to the cause, but I do believe Beauden Barrett and his teammates will have a strong desire to beat the Boks and make a statement to the rest of the world.
New Zealand’s gradual demise in World Rugby was clearly visible over the past few years. I know some of the All Blacks fans didn’t want to see it, but it was always there for the neutral observer to see.
The spyker in die doodskis this year, was SA franchises’ move to the north. I’ve written about this before, so I won’t stuck there.
Here’s the thing, though, while the rest of the world is looking to copy South Africa’s blueprint for success, I believe the All Blacks will make a big mistake if they want to do the same.
What made this encounter so interesting over the years is the contrast of styles.
But in the words of All Blacks legend John Kirwan on The Breakdown last month: “All the comms coming out of the camp after the World Cup in Japan were: ‘We’ve got to play like that’.
“I reckon we’ve gone away from how we want to play…
“It seems like we’re caught in, we don’t know what our style is anymore…”
Here’s the thing, the Springboks have been branded “boring” the world over for the amount of kicks they make in a match. The All Blacks have always been portrayed as a free-running team.
So what if I tell you that in their last outings, the All Blacks have kicked the ball exactly the same amount as the Springboks - 26?
Let’s dig a little deeper. In the All Blacks’ first Test against Ireland - the one they actually won 42-19, they kicked the ball a total of 28 times to Ireland’s 20.
Then in the second Test, it was Ireland who looked to transfer the pressure 22 times, with the All Blacks only kicking 15 times. The team who kicked most won 23-12.
Aan die kant van die wereld, South Africa lost the second Test to Wales with 23 kicks made out of hand, after kicking a total of 25 times out of hand in the 32-29 first-Test win.
You can work out the averages…
Okay, SA kicked the ball out of hand on average 24.6 times per match and New Zealand averaged 23 kicks out of hand per match.
That’s roughly the amount of kicks you can expect on Saturday.
With the pressure on their coach and players, it wouldn’t be wise for the All Blacks to fight South Africa with their air force. They’d be better off trying to run the Boks off the park.
Before I get too deep into how the All Blacks can beat the Boks, I’d better sign off and wish captain Siya Kolisi and his team good luck on Saturday.
With home crowd advantage in Nelspruit (where Faf de Klerk os from), it might not be such a bad idea to bomb the All Blacks with high kicks for SA’s big men to chase down and flatten the wannabe catchers. Laat hulle hulle moeg hardloop and cash in on the mistakes. Remember, when the heat is on, the pressure cooks. And when the pressure is cooking, u can lead to an All Black losing his cool. That can lead to ill-discipline or unforced errors, which will play into the hands of the Boks.
Stick to the plan SA, it’s up to New Zealand to find a way to regain lost pride.
Go Bokke!
dudley.carstens@inl.co.za